This blog is about three things I care about: books, basketball and the search for a third thing.

Thursday, November 30, 2006

For Your Consideration

Sports Conspiracy Theory #1
My most recent theory is thus: Smarmy super-agent Scott Boras is extorting (blackmailing, maybe some other -ing word) the Boston Red Sox by forcing them to sign his longtime client J.D. Drew in order to sign his most recent client, Japanese pitching ace Daisuke Matsuzaka. The reason I say this is that the Red Sox are apparently seriously working to trade a surefire Hall of Famer in Manny Ramirez so they can sign Drew, whose main characteristic as a player has been listlessness.
In his years of representing Drew, Boras has always been adamant that Drew be paid superstar dollars (even having him sit out and play for the St. Paul Saints after he was drafted by the Phillies) despite never really delivering superstar performances. My only explanation for the Sox signing Drew is that Boras told them if they give Drew a nice contract that is better than the one he opted out of with the L.A. Dodgers, Boras will ensure that Matsuzaka signs.
Much was made of the Sox paying $51.1 million solely for the right to negotiate with D-Mat, whose touted "gyroball" has taken on Sid Finchian proportions, despite the fact most Americans have never seen him pitch. But Boston knows that whether Matsuzaka actually signs will depend on whether Boras wants him to, not whether the pitcher himself wants to play in Beantown. Since Boras has such leverage in this transaction, he has made signing Drew a prerequisite. I don't know why this means Manny has to leave, but that does open a spot for Drew in left field. The Manny trade rumors confuse me more than anything because all signs point to this being real, not the usual Manny Being Manny fake trade scenarios. The proposals have been weak when you consider how great Ramirez has been. Two prospects and a middle reliever for a power hitter with great average who provides excellent protection for David Ortiz? I'm a bit confused, obviously.
Drew's numbers are not horrible, but compare them to Manny's and a difference is clear. It is most obvious in equivalent average, VORP and WARP1, 2 and 3, which are different metrics for value and wins over the average player.
The Drew and Matsuzaka package is also confusing because neither seems prepared to deal with the intense pressure in Boston. Drew has never done well in the harsh spotlight, and Matsuzaka has never even thrown a pitch in the majors. The Boston pitching staff looks formidable if they have D-Mat to team with Beckett, Schilling, Papelbon, Wakefield and maybe even a starter from a Manny trade. But teams still need to score runs, and I don't think a lineup without Manny will be nearly as strong. Boras clearly doesn't care and never has. He wants to get rid of Manny, a Jeffrey Moorad (correction added later: Manny used to be a Moorad client, such as when he signed his original huge Sox deal, but now he is represented by Greg Genske) client to make room for his own, Drew, to play behind his pitcher. Because D-Mat is the flavor of the month, Boras has retained a ridiculous amount of bargaining power. However, it is unknown if Matsuzaka is going to become the Japanese Walter Johnson or just Hideki Irabu. Count me in as someone who is skeptical. I wouldn't sign Drew and hope the Sox don't either.
I'm sure if this blog were actually widely read people would poke all kinds of holes in this argument, but I wanted to get it down because a cursory look on the Web didn't reveal someone else making it. Maybe if somehow it turns out to be true, I can at least rejoice in that.

2 Comments:

Blogger Butch Hobson's Choice said...

An interesting theory. However, if Matzuzaka doesn't sign with Boston, his Japanese club (Nippon Ham Fighters? Yakult Swallows?) will be out a boatload of cash and Matzuzaka will become a free agent in a year. Therefore, I think Matzuzaka may be pressured to sign Boston's offer, maybe even bribed to do so. Boston can't cut a side deal with the Japanese club, but there's nothing preventing Matzuzaka and Boras from doing so, at least nothing I've read prevents an arrangement between two Japanese parties (Matzuzaka and his club). Your theory of a "package deal" makes a good deal of sense, but there are a number of equally nefarious back-door scenarios that might be considered plausible.

1:10 PM

 
Blogger jgautrea said...

You're right. If Matsuzaka and Boras don't sign with Boston, he goes back to the Seibu Lions for a year and then would become a free agent, according to Wikipedia. Obviously, this would lead to a bidding war, but I think only the Yanks and Sox could really compete because all of the other teams wouldn't have the cash. In the end, it's possible that Boras would get the most money under this scenario, but I would think he also gets a cut of the posting fee, which doesn't exist under this scenario. I think Boras wants this to work, but only on his terms, which is sign lethargic J.D. Drew, pay a long-term deal to Matsuzaka and paint his face on the wall of the Green Monster. Maybe the third part isn't necessary, but I see Boras as having more leverage than just about any agent should in this deal. You're right that back-door dealing of all kinds could be rampant. Maybe the Sox are going along with the deal because Matsuzaka is such a transcendent talent that they consider themselves lucky that all Boras is asking for is that they take on J.D. Drew.

3:31 PM

 

Post a Comment

<< Home